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News vom 19.12.2007

Boom in the number of first year students in Germany: New study by the CHE – Centre for Higher Education Development foresees great demand beyond 2020

With its latest study "Die Zukunft vor den Toren" („The Future in Sight“), CHE Consult presents an updated calculation for growth in the number of first year students up until 2020. According to the study, the number of German first year students will markedly increase, reach a high point in 2013 and will remain at a high level beyond 2020.

Growth in the number of first year students in Germany has for quite a while been a matter of public debate about participation in education, academic reform and the growing demand for graduate specialists. Since 2003, the number of German first year students had been constantly decreasing. It was not before the preliminary statistical study on the number of first year students by the Federal Statistical Office published in the middle of December 2007 that positive trends were predicted for nearly all Länder. The figures could be interpreted as the first positive results of the Higher Education Covenant 2020, with which Federation and Länder agreed on the creation of 91.370 additional places for new students. The new CHE study gives an indication of whether the agreed additional places are sufficient and how the demand for study places will develop beyond the time span of the Higher Education Covenant.



Predicted number of additional first year students (based on the average number of first year students from 2000 to 2004)

On the basis of relevant calculations carried out by the Conference of German Cultural Ministers (Kultusministerkonferenz) on the numbers of school-leavers qualified to enter higher education, the study extrapolates first year student numbers according to Länder. The study reveals that, compared with the average number of first year students between 2000 and 2004, between 2007 and 2020 about 140,000 fewer school-leavers qualified to enter higher education will take up a study programme in the East German Länder. Meanwhile, there will be about a million additional first year students in the West German Länder. If the basis value for first year student numbers in 2005, as used for the Higher Education Covenant, is taken as starting point, about 141,000 additional first year students are expected between 2007 and 2010 with only 10,000 vacant places in the East German Länder. Over the whole forecast period, the study concludes that there will be about 715,000 additional first years students compared with the year 2005. With respect to costs, as calculated in the Higher Education Covenant, this means that complete financing of the additional first year students up to 2010 will cost about 3 billion Euros while the entire boom in the number of first year students up to 2020 will cost nearly 16 billion Euros.


Further Information can be found in the publication stated below.

Publication in relation to this news
  • von Stuckrad, Thimo; Gabriel, Gösta Ingvar: Die Zukunft vor den Toren - Aktualisierte Berechnungen zur Entwicklung der Studienanfängerzahlen bis 2020 , Gütersloh, CHE Arbeitspapier 100, 24 Seiten,
    ISBN 978-3-939589-63-1,
    ISSN 1862-7188

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