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News vom 17.07.2006

CHE forecast for number of first year students until 2020

The study shows that the number of first year students will develop differently in each Land over the next 15 years. The doubled amount of school leavers yearly and the different birth rates in old and new Länder play an important role. Available capacities in some Länder will only be able to support about one third of the anticipated increase state-wide.

In its forecast, CHE linked the number of school leavers, as they have been calculated by the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs of the Länder (Kultusministerkonferenz) until the year 2020, with the Länder-specific ratio of school leavers who go on to study and with student mobility in all of Germany. This makes it possible to predict how first year students will be distributed among the individual Länder. Next, the predicted number of first year students was subtracted from the average number of first year students between the years 2000 and 2004, to determine the change relative to the current number. In this way, the available and necessary student capacity can be depicted. The study compares a group of Länder with an excess of available places for students with a group of Länder with a shortage of places. The calculations thus consider only first year students and not current students.

An extrapolation over this period of time would be methodologically uncertain, due to the great number of mutable factors. Even more important is the fact that numerous factors may be deliberately politically shaped, as well they should. The migration of first year students thus depends on the quality of studies, the appeal of the study locations and the concrete conditions of the study programmes, such as financing options and restrictions on admission. Moreover, the number of school leavers holding a university entrance qualification and the ratio of those who continue on to institutions of higher education depend on various social and educational-political factors. “We are not interested in predicting the future, but in delivering facts for political action”, said Florian Buch, leader of the study.


Further Information can be found in the publication stated below.

Publication in relation to this news
  • Buch, Florian; Hener, Yorck; von Stuckrad, Thimo: Prognose der Studienkapazitätsüberschüsse und -defizite in den Bundesländern bis zum Jahr 2020 , Arbeitspapier Nr. 77, Gütersloh, CHE,
    ISBN 3-939589-29-2,
    ISSN 1862-7188

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